Working Papers
Chokepoints: Identifying Economic Pressure
With Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger
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Economic pressure—the use of economic means by governments to achieve geopolitical ends—has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora. We quantify not just the direct effects of implemented policies but also the off-path threats that induce compliance without formal action. We systematically identify governments, firms, tools, and activities that are involved in this pressure. We demonstrate that firms respond differently to various forms of economic pressure, as well responding differently to policies that have been implemented versus the threat of future pressure.
The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area
With Roland Beck, Angus Lewis, Matteo Maggiori, Martin Schmitz, and Jesse Schreger
Revise & Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
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We assess the pattern of Euro Area financial integration adjusting for the role of “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. The OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as both hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign firms. We provide new estimates of Euro Area countries’ bilateral portfolio investments which look through both roles, attributing the wealth held via investment funds to the underlying holders and linking securities issuance to the ultimate parent firms. Our new estimates show that the Euro Area is less financially integrated than it appears, both within the currency union and vis-á-vis the rest of the world. While official data suggests a sharp decline in portfolio home bias for Euro Area countries relative to other developed economies following the introduction of the euro, we demonstrate that this pattern only remains true for bond portfolios, while it is artificially generated by OOFC activities for equity portfolios. Further, using new administrative evidence on the identity of non-Euro Area investors in OOFC funds, we document that the bulk of the positions constituting missing wealth in international financial accounts are now accounted for by United Kingdom counterparts.
Liquidity, Debt Denomination, and Currency Dominance
With Arvind Krishnamurthy and Chenzi Xu
Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Finance
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Press Coverage: GSB Insights
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The international monetary system of the last four centuries has experienced the rise, persistence, and fall of specific currencies as the dominant unit of denomination in global debt contracts. We argue that a liquidity-based theory is necessary to explain this pattern. Firms issue debt that can be extinguished by trading their revenues for financial assets of the same denomination. When asset markets differ in their liquidity, as modeled via endogenous search frictions, firms optimally choose to denominate debt in the unit of the asset that is most liquid. Equilibria with a single dominant currency emerge from a positive feedback cycle whereby issuing in the more liquid denomination endogenously raises the benefits of that denomination. This feedback mechanism has historically been seeded by governments committed to the largest pool of liquid assets in the same denomination. Once a dominant currency emerges, the government hosting the currency endogenously invests more in the liquidity of its financial markets, leading to further entrenchment of that equilibrium. Our theory explains the historical experiences of the Dutch florin, the British pound sterling, the US dollar, and the transitions between them. We rationalize the current dollar-dominant international financial architecture and provide predictions about the potential rise of the Chinese renminbi.
Publications
Currency Development Through Liquidity Provision
With Arvind Krishnamurthy and Chenzi Xu
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2025
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Press Coverage: Central Banking
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Drawing on the experiences of the historical Eurodollar market and recent Chinese dollar bond issuances traded outside U.S. jurisdiction at negative spreads to Treasurys, we examine the conditions under which a parallel offshore dollar financial system that circumvents Western sanctions may emerge. We propose a model in which currency use is driven by liquidity provision and safe bond supply. We characterize three equilibrium regimes: high convenience yields emerge in both the initial sanctions-driven region and the final liquidity-driven region, separated by an intermediate region. Transitions between equilibria depend on safe-asset supply and liquidity technologies, in addition to endogenous dynamic complementarities.
In Safe Hands: The Financial and Real Impact of Investor Composition Over the Credit Cycle
Review of Financial Studies (Accepted, 2024)
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Finalist, BlackRock Applied Research Award 2021
AQR Top Finance Graduate Award 2022
European Systemic Risk Board, Ieke van den Burg Prize 2022
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I show that investor composition impacts bond price dynamics and capital allocation during crises. Using large-scale holdings data and within-firm ownership variation across near-identical bonds, I causally identify bond returns’ investor composition elasticities. Corporate bonds held predominantly by insurers rather than mutual funds suffer milder losses in downturns: increasing insurer holdings by half a bond’s size causes 20% shallower drawdowns. A shift-share instrument isolates variation from large insurers’ idiosyncratic primary-market allocations. Differences in intermediaries’ liability structures drive these results, which hold across countries. During crises, firms with more stable bondholders maintain higher borrowing at lower cost and invest more.
China in Tax Havens
With Christopher Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023
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Additional Resources: SIEPR Policy Brief | Related Non-Technical Piece
Press Coverage: Bloomberg | NBER Digest | The New York Times
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We document the rise of China in offshore capital markets. Chinese firms use global tax havens to access foreign capital both in equity and bond markets. In the last twenty years, China’s presence went from raising a negligible amount of capital in these markets to accounting for more than half of equity issuance and around a fifth of global corporate bonds outstanding in tax havens. Using rich micro data, we show that a range of Chinese firms, including both tech giants and SOEs, use these offshore centers. We conclude by discussing the macroeconomic and financial stability implications of these patterns.
Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
With Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, and Jesse Schreger
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021
Main Text | Appendix | Data
Additional Resources: Replication Code | Interactive Graphics
Selected Press Coverage: The Economist | Financial Times | Bloomberg | NBER Digest | The Wire China
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Global firms finance themselves through foreign subsidiaries, often shell companies in tax havens, which obscures their true economic location in official statistics. We associate the universe of traded securities issued by firms in tax havens with their issuer’s ultimate parent and restate bilateral investment positions to better reflect the financial linkages connecting countries around the world. Bilateral portfolio investment from developed countries to firms in large emerging markets is dramatically larger than previously thought. The national accounts of the United States, for example, understate the U.S. position in Chinese firms by nearly 600 billion dollars. Further, we demonstrate how offshore issuance in tax havens affects our understanding of the currency composition of external portfolio liabilities and the nature of foreign direct investment. Finally, we provide additional restatements of bilateral investment positions, including one based on the geographic distribution of sales.